Jacob Vogler, a PhD economics student at the University of Illinois, looked at crime rates before and after Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion, comparing states that didn’t expand and states that did. He also whittled down to a more granular level, looking at the crime rates in counties in Medicaid expansion states that saw the biggest increases in coverage.
This is what he found:
Incidents of reported violent crimes decreased 5 percent, per 100,000 people, in Medicaid expansion states compared to non-expansion states.
Incidents of property crime decreased by 3 percent.
Homicide, aggravated assault, robbery, and vehicle theft all saw statistically significant declines.
At the county level, counties that saw bigger coverage gains saw bigger crime reductions: A 1 percent gain in coverage correlated to a 0.7 percent drop in violent crime.
Vogler used some back-of-the-napkin math to estimate that this decrease in crime led to $400 million in savings to society, based on existing estimates of how much different crimes “cost.”
Remove financial strain from medical bills, and you have one less reason to steal, work for illicit organizations, or try to take what they want by force. You also reduce the likelihood of emotions running so high that one snaps in violence. It reduces stress. All this is obvious. That we have to study it to have the obvious notion gain legitimacy is one of humanity’s absurdities. That it will likely be laughed at by the alt-right is another.
The striking new evidence that expanding health coverage reduces crime